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MLB Playoff Preview & Picks 2009

7 October 2009 13 views

Major League Baseball’s October classic kicks off today in fine fashion, matching up the league’s best for a memorable playoff season.

Yesterday’s 1-game playoff between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers was an instant (ESPN) Classic.  12-innings, something like 24 hits and 20 stranded base runners in total.  Both teams were hungry, but the Twins executed in the clutch and pulled out the win to advance to meet the Yankees – baseball’s best (regular season) team.

American League Series

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

The Yankees enter the postseason with the major’s best record – 103 wins – and the benefit of home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Twins enter after narrowly escaping a 1-game playoff w/ the Tigers on Tuesday night.

Led by Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia & Mariano Rivera, the Yankees are the favorite to reach the World Series out of the AL, but they have historically crumbled under these circumstances, so their advancement is questionable (still) at best.  The offense is potent and capable of taking all of the Twins’ starters out early, but NY’s pitching is also somewhat of a question mark at the same time – they could just as easily be knocked out in the early innings.

The Twins come in with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and really only 1 true superstar in catcher Joe Mauer (2009 MVP?).  After an improbable run to reach the 1-game playoff, Minnesota survived the loss of one of its best players in Justin Morneau and clawed back in the AL Central.  Trailing by 7 games in early September, they mounted a strong charge to catch & ultimately defeat the Tigers for the opportunity to play in the postseason.

Both teams are capable of not only scoring, but producing runs and their pitching staffs are somewhat comparable (Yankees have slight advantage due to age).  I give the Twins 1 win in the 1st round, but NY comes out to meet up w/ the wait… (Red Sox) in an epic battle for the ALCS.

Boston Red Sox vs. L.A./Anaheim Angels

Coming soon… Whoops… (Angels maybe? LOL) added 10/16/09

National League Series

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The surprising Rockies beat out many other favored NL teams for the Wild Card, but they deserve to be where they are (no doubt).  The Phillies, on the other hand are facing pitching troubles as they attempt to defend their 2008 World Series title, particularly in the bullpen w/ (former?) closer Brad Lidge.  The “unbeatable” guy last year, Lidge has been unreliable and has one of the worst sets of stats for someone who got as many innings & opportunities as he did to close out & win games.

The Phillies dominate (starting) pitching & power in the lineup will ultimately decide this series.  Acquired mid-season, Cliff Lee appears to be the (2nd or 1st?) ace that the team needed to get back to the World Series.  He is the starter in Game 1 over Cole Hamels & has thrown a shutout (thru 6).  On offense, the team can hit against virtually anybody and explode for runs at anytime.  Ryan Howard is a legit MVP candidate, but he’s got an extremely strong supporting cast in Jayson  Werth, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Jimmy Rollins.

Colorado comes in as the underdog, but they are not to be underestimated.  This is the 2nd time in just a few years that they have made a late playoff run and last time they made it all the way to the World Series in 2007 vs. the Red Sox.  They are a young team, but have a good blend of veterans and skilled players capable of winning (as they’ve shown).  Their weakness, as many fantasy baseball players might recognize, is their low batting averages for the middle of the lineup (5+) – guys like Dexter Fowler, Clint Barmes,

The timing of this post isn’t exactly as early as I would have liked it, especially considering that Philly already holds a 5-0 lead on Colorado in the 6th inning of Game 1, but I do favor the Phillies to win the series and advance.  The Philadelphia offense is simply too strong and overpowering for the Rockies to handle in a 5-game series, and the pitching matchup also favors Philly in my opinion.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The LA Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals matchup is one of the best in the 1st round, because both teams are fairly similar.  Each has pretty good pitching top-to-bottom and an offense capable of scoring runs quickly.

The Cardinals haven’t exactly been on fire lately, but their pitching includes the likely Cy Young winner for the National League in Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright, and the league’s MVP in Albert Pujols.  Still, they have a long road ahead to reach the World Series and possible championship.  They have some good help in the lineup w/ Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, as well as a strong bullpen featuring Ryan Franklin as the closer (38 saves).

The Dodgers’ batting lineup might be a little better top-to-bottom (4th highest batting average in baseball) and includes one of the best hitters in the game in Manny Ramirez, although he’s been struggling of late.  The pitching staff is exceptional, leading MLB w/ a 3.47 ERA and the bullpen is great at keeping other teams from scoring after the starter is out of the game.

Game 1 is already in the books, but my overall prediction favors the Cardinals, despite the 0-1 hole they find themselves in now.  Ace Chris Carpenter was jumped on by Andre Ethier in the 1st inning and St. Louis never recovered. For LA, Randy Wolf was pulled in the 4th inning after falling behind and putting too many men on base.  Game 1 featured a postseason record for men left on base – something like 27 total baserunners were stranded between the two teams… not exactly efficient on offense, but credit both pitching staffs for shutting the door on hitters.

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